The first is that whatever the outcome, we will end up with a divided nation. It looks like the result will be roughly 50/50, so whichever side wins, half of the country will be dissatisfied.
Whilst the Scottish independence reference had a similar split and there doesn't seem to have been any underlying unrest in the country, there is still constant talk about a second independence referendum. So, if next week the country votes to remain (especially if by a small margin), I can imagine there will be number of calls over the next few months or years for another referendum.
The issues with the EU referendum are also a lot more emotionally charged than those for the Scottish independence referendum. That was largely about taking control over the political decisions made in the country because they didn't like those being made in Westminster.
The EU referendum can be seen at it's core as the same - that the leave side are asking to take back the control over political decisions from Brussels - however there are a number of issues, predominantly around immigration and the effect that has on communities who are struggling for housing and jobs, which were major issues during the Scottish referendum. These issues will still be there if there is a vote to Remain, and will continue to provide tension in these communities.
Another reason I am worried is that I personally have been quite stressed thinking about it and weighing up all the arguments to decide which way to vote. We elect politicians to be knowledgeable and clued up on things so that they can make our decisions for us. Whilst a referendum is a very democratic process which - at heart - I approve of, it is difficult to argue that all the people who will be voting will be fully knowledgeable about the consequences of which way they are voting.
Part of the reason for this is that there has been a lot of speculation, estimates and sometimes lies on both sides of the argument. The reason for this is that no one can tell the future. And the discussions that I have seen have not been fully reasoned. They have been people putting their side across. There has not been any proper discussion which would have helped to evolve our understanding. There has largely just been dogmatic claims.
MPs and the public have a significantly different view on the matter. Whilst the public are close to 50/50, only 25% of MPs are supporting the leave campaign. The referendum came around largely to try to appease Conservative back benchers and keep the party intact, as well as to attempt to fend off a threat from UKIP. Cameron in my view has risked the future of our country for self-gain. Although, looking at the election results, the two main parties who were offering a referendum, or wanted to leave gained almost half of the vote (Conservatives 36.8%, UKIP 12.7% - a total of 49.5%) and so I'm not sure why some people were surprised at how close the referendum vote was looking to be.
The only other referendum that I have been eligible to vote in, the Alternative Vote referendum. My take on that was that people voted for the status quo. It is too risky to make a leap and vote for massive change. The same sort of argument has been used by the conservatives in last year's election, and Dubya in America - "don't change horses midstream" although the EU referendum has a lot of people willing to make that leap into the dark.
The AV referendum upset me. It would have increased the amount of democracy we have. Not by a large amount, but partially. It wouldn't have been as much of a change as proportional representation, which I am still hopeful we will have in my lifetime, but it would have been a step in the right direction. The EU referendum has a larger number of people willing to take the risk of change, particularly among the older generation.
So, after this preamble, I need to decide how I am going to vote. I was unsure at first, but several factors have persuaded me to go for Bremaining.
Initially, I was basing my decision on which side had the least idiots backing it. This was easily remain as despite Cameron and Osborne backing it, they were easily outweighed by Farridge, Johnson, Gove, IDS and co. in terms of buffoonery, incompetence and being self-serving.
I have then evolved to making a decision about what level I want to be governed at, and what I think is best for everyone and not just the people of Britain. My belief is that borders are largely arbitrary, based on historical wars. It is better, in my opinion, for the people of Europe to be united as one, rather than divided, and therefore I favour a Europe-wide government.
Whilst I do believe that some issues are best decided at a local level, to allow specific local needs to be fulfilled, we still have this under an EU government as we have national government, along with county, local and parish councils which should (in theory) be able to tailor the government of the country to specific local requirements.
I consider myself to be left-wing, and my beliefs are that we should govern in the interests of all, not the interests of the few. Obviously, others will have different opinions on this, and that can be seen in the split of the voting in the last general election as well as beliefs on the welfare state.
My view is that rather than being upset that we pay more to the EU than we get back, we should celebrate the fact that we are helping raise the minimum level of quality of life in other countries rather than we are creating a bigger divide. This is in line with my beliefs on the welfare state and how we should lift everyone up rather than creating a bigger divide by moving the wealth upwards.
One bonus of my stance is that overall the EU government is likely to be central overall, when you combine all parties from the left and the right, and therefore they are more likely to keep any extreme national government in check.
Conservatives such as Michael Gove have been claiming that they will spend all the money that they "reclaim" from the EU on our public services. This is despite spending the last 6 years cutting them in favour of tax breaks for the rich. It made me quite nauseous when he was putting this opinion forward on Question Time last night.
I think the deciding factor for me is that my opinions are more in line with those from the EU. I trust more a government that came up with workers rights than one which has been systematically dismantling the welfare state and destroying the NHS. Therefore I would prefer to be governed by Europe.
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